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San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
10/1/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

San Marcos de Arica61%
×Draw23%
Deportes Valdivia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos de Arica
1.74
Deportes Valdivia
0.74

San Marcos de Arica creates 135% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica
2.09
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica
0.36
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw
84%
San Marcos de Arica or Deportes Valdivia
77%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
39%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
35%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
82%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
52%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
25%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
52%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
17%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
80%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 2.09 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.74

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + San Marcos de Arica defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more
61%
level
23%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
16%

San Marcos de Arica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: San Marcos de Arica 2–1 Deportes Valdivia

San Marcos de Arica beat Deportes Valdivia 2-1 in Segunda División on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn in Arica.