Deportes Valdivia 2–1 San Marcos de Arica

Deportes Valdivia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Marcos de Arica

6/18/2022

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Deportes Valdivia38%

×Draw29%

San Marcos de Arica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes ValdiviaExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.04

Deportes Valdivia

1.16

San Marcos de Arica

1.04

Deportes Valdivia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.31

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia

1.09

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw

68%

Deportes Valdivia or San Marcos de Arica

71%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

62%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

16%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

32%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

11%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

65%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

28%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

54%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more

38%

level

29%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

32%

Deportes Valdivia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff