San Marcos de Arica 1–4 Barnechea: Result & Stats

San Marcos de Arica

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Barnechea

4/28/2024

Primera B · Round 10Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

San Marcos de Arica45%

×Draw26%

Barnechea29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Marcos de AricaExpected goals in this matchBarnechea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

San Marcos de Arica

1.43

Barnechea

1.08

San Marcos de Arica creates 32% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 95 away

1.34

creates per match

1.09

1.08

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.34

Barnechea

1.09

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.08

Barnechea

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Barnechea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw

71%

San Marcos de Arica or Barnechea

74%

Draw or Barnechea

55%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

22%

Barnechea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

76%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

42%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

17%

Barnechea 1+ goals

66%

Barnechea 2+ goals

29%

Barnechea 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

61%

Barnechea (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.34 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Barnechea attack 1.09 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more

45%

level

26%

Barnechea scores more

29%

San Marcos de Arica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff