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Barnechea vs San Marcos de Arica — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
10/27/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Barnechea44%
×Draw26%
San Marcos de Arica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.46
San Marcos de Arica
1.16

Barnechea creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 91 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
San Marcos de Arica
1.11

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
San Marcos de Arica
1.41

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

San Marcos de Arica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
70%
Barnechea or San Marcos de Arica
74%
Draw or San Marcos de Arica
56%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
21%
San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
77%
Barnechea 2+ goals
43%
Barnechea 3+ goals
18%
San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
69%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
32%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
59%
San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.11 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnechea scores more
44%
level
26%
San Marcos de Arica scores more
30%

Barnechea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barnechea 1–1 San Marcos de Arica

Barnechea and San Marcos de Arica drew 1-1 in Primera B on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.