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San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta — Primera B 2026

San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
8/31/2025Primera BPrimera B · Round 23Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Marcos de Arica44%
×Draw27%
Antofagasta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos de Arica
1.41
Antofagasta
1.10

San Marcos de Arica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica
1.34
Antofagasta
1.12

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica
1.08
Antofagasta
1.47

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par
Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Antofagasta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw
71%
San Marcos de Arica or Antofagasta
73%
Draw or Antofagasta
56%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
21%
Antofagasta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
76%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
41%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
17%
Antofagasta 1+ goals
67%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
30%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
60%
Antofagasta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.34 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more
44%
level
27%
Antofagasta scores more
29%

San Marcos de Arica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: San Marcos de Arica 0–0 Antofagasta

San Marcos de Arica and Antofagasta drew 0-0 in Primera B on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn in Arica.