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Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica — Primera B 2026

Antofagasta
Antofagasta
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
4/27/2025Primera BPrimera B · Round 8Estadio Regional de Antofagasta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Antofagasta50%
×Draw25%
San Marcos de Arica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antofagasta
1.60
San Marcos de Arica
1.04

Antofagasta creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 91 away

creates per match

Antofagasta
1.80
San Marcos de Arica
1.11

allows per match

Antofagasta
0.98
San Marcos de Arica
1.41

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par
San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

San Marcos de Arica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw
75%
Antofagasta or San Marcos de Arica
75%
Draw or San Marcos de Arica
50%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+
26%
San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals
80%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
47%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
22%
San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
65%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
28%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)
67%
San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.11 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Antofagasta scores more
50%
level
25%
San Marcos de Arica scores more
25%

Antofagasta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Antofagasta 2–3 San Marcos de Arica

San Marcos de Arica beat Antofagasta 3-2 in Primera B on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Antofagasta in Antofagasta.