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San Marcial vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

San Marcial
San Marcial
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Berceo
Berceo
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial36%
×Draw25%
Berceo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcial
1.39
Berceo
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

San Marcial
1.18
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

San Marcial
1.71
Berceo
1.59

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw
60%
San Marcial or Berceo
75%
Draw or Berceo
64%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+
16%
Berceo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals
75%
San Marcial 2+ goals
40%
San Marcial 3+ goals
16%
Berceo 1+ goals
77%
Berceo 2+ goals
43%
Berceo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)
47%
Berceo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Berceo attack 1.25 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Marcial scores more
36%
level
25%
Berceo scores more
40%

Berceo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Marcial vs Berceo

San Marcial and Berceo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente in Lardero.