Berceo 2–3 San Marcial: Result & Stats

Berceo

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

San Marcial

9/28/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berceo43%

×Draw24%

San Marcial33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerceoExpected goals in this matchSan Marcial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

Berceo

1.58

San Marcial

1.36

Berceo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.12

1.60

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Berceo

1.41

San Marcial

1.12

allows per match

Berceo

1.60

San Marcial

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par

San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

San Marcial →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Berceo or draw

67%

Berceo or San Marcial

76%

Draw or San Marcial

57%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+

21%

San Marcial wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals

79%

Berceo 2+ goals

47%

Berceo 3+ goals

21%

San Marcial 1+ goals

74%

San Marcial 2+ goals

39%

San Marcial 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)

56%

San Marcial (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Marcial attack 1.12 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Berceo scores more

43%

level

24%

San Marcial scores more

33%

Berceo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff