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San Marcial vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

San Marcial
San Marcial
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Autol
Autol
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial57%
×Draw22%
Autol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcial
1.96
Autol
1.10

San Marcial creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

San Marcial
1.18
Autol
0.50

allows per match

San Marcial
1.71
Autol
2.74

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw
79%
San Marcial or Autol
78%
Draw or Autol
43%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+
34%
Autol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals
86%
San Marcial 2+ goals
58%
San Marcial 3+ goals
31%
Autol 1+ goals
67%
Autol 2+ goals
30%
Autol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)
73%
Autol (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.96

Autol attack 0.50 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

San Marcial scores more
57%
level
22%
Autol scores more
21%

San Marcial at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "San Marcial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Marcial vs Autol

San Marcial beat Autol 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente in Lardero.