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Autol vs San Marcial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Autol
Autol
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
San Marcial
San Marcial
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Estadio La Manzanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Autol39%
×Draw27%
San Marcial34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Autol
1.32
San Marcial
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Autol
0.88
San Marcial
1.12

allows per match

Autol
1.32
San Marcial
1.76

finishing

Autol+0.00on par
San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Autol ↓

San Marcial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Autol or draw
66%
Autol or San Marcial
73%
Draw or San Marcial
61%

Winning margin

Autol wins by 2+
18%
San Marcial wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Autol 1+ goals
73%
Autol 2+ goals
38%
Autol 3+ goals
15%
San Marcial 1+ goals
70%
San Marcial 2+ goals
34%
San Marcial 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Autol (draw refunded)
53%
San Marcial (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Autol at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Autol attack 0.88 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

San Marcial attack 1.12 + Autol defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Autol scores more
39%
level
27%
San Marcial scores more
34%

Autol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Autol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Autol 0–4 San Marcial

San Marcial beat Autol 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Manzanera in Autol.