San Luis 1–2 Rangers de Talca: Result & Stats

San Luis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rangers de Talca

7/21/2025

Primera B · Round 17Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

San Luis40%

×Draw28%

Rangers de Talca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuisExpected goals in this matchRangers de Talca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

San Luis

1.27

Rangers de Talca

1.12

San Luis creates 13% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 124 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

San Luis

1.15

Rangers de Talca

1.11

allows per match

San Luis

1.13

Rangers de Talca

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luis+0.00on par

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luis ↓

Rangers de Talca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Luis or draw

67%

San Luis or Rangers de Talca

72%

Draw or Rangers de Talca

60%

Winning margin

San Luis wins by 2+

18%

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Luis 1+ goals

72%

San Luis 2+ goals

36%

San Luis 3+ goals

14%

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals

67%

Rangers de Talca 2+ goals

31%

Rangers de Talca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Luis (draw refunded)

55%

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luis attack 1.15 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rangers de Talca attack 1.11 + San Luis defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Luis scores more

40%

level

28%

Rangers de Talca scores more

33%

San Luis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Luis vs Rangers de Talca

Rangers de Talca beat San Luis 2-1 in Primera B on July 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.

San Luis vs Rangers de Talca — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Luis vs Rangers de Talca