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Rangers de Talca vs San Luis — Primera B 2026

Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
San Luis
San Luis
3/23/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 5Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Rangers de Talca43%
×Draw27%
San Luis31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers de Talca
1.40
San Luis
1.14

Rangers de Talca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 111 away

creates per match

Rangers de Talca
1.29
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Rangers de Talca
1.27
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw
69%
Rangers de Talca or San Luis
73%
Draw or San Luis
57%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
20%
San Luis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
75%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
41%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
17%
San Luis 1+ goals
68%
San Luis 2+ goals
32%
San Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
58%
San Luis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Luis attack 1.01 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more
43%
level
27%
San Luis scores more
31%

Rangers de Talca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers de Talca vs San Luis

San Luis beat Rangers de Talca 4-2 in Primera B on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.