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San Luis vs Curico Unido — Primera B 2026

San Luis
San Luis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
3/2/2026Primera BPrimera B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Luis42%
×Draw28%
Curico Unido30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Luis
1.30
Curico Unido
1.04

San Luis creates 25% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 38 away

creates per match

San Luis
1.15
Curico Unido
0.95

allows per match

San Luis
1.12
Curico Unido
1.45

finishing

San Luis+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luis ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Luis or draw
70%
San Luis or Curico Unido
72%
Draw or Curico Unido
58%

Winning margin

San Luis wins by 2+
19%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Luis 1+ goals
73%
San Luis 2+ goals
37%
San Luis 3+ goals
14%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
65%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
28%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Luis (draw refunded)
59%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.12 · 109 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luis attack 1.15 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + San Luis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Luis scores more
42%
level
28%
Curico Unido scores more
30%

San Luis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: San Luis 1–1 Curico Unido

San Luis and Curico Unido drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 2, 2026.