Curico Unido 1–3 San Luis: Result & Stats

Curico Unido

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

San Luis

9/13/2025

Primera B · Round 25Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Curico Unido40%

×Draw27%

San Luis33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curico UnidoExpected goals in this matchSan Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Curico Unido

1.31

San Luis

1.17

Curico Unido creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 108 away

1.11

creates per match

1.01

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Curico Unido

1.11

San Luis

1.01

allows per match

Curico Unido

1.32

San Luis

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par

San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw

67%

Curico Unido or San Luis

73%

Draw or San Luis

60%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+

18%

San Luis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals

73%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

38%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

14%

San Luis 1+ goals

69%

San Luis 2+ goals

33%

San Luis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

55%

San Luis (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.52 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.11 + San Luis defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Luis attack 1.01 + Curico Unido defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Curico Unido scores more

40%

level

27%

San Luis scores more

33%

Curico Unido at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff