Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Luigi vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Luigi
San Luigi
FT
3 – 1
Chions
Chions
T. Bertoni 89'
F. Giovannini 44' (pen), 35' (pen)
A. Filippini 24'
2/23/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 28Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

San Luigi35%
×Draw24%
Chions41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Luigi
1.48
Chions
1.63

Chions creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 50 away

creates per match

San Luigi
1.13
Chions
1.10

allows per match

San Luigi
2.16
Chions
1.84

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw
59%
San Luigi or Chions
76%
Draw or Chions
65%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+
16%
Chions wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals
77%
San Luigi 2+ goals
43%
San Luigi 3+ goals
19%
Chions 1+ goals
80%
Chions 2+ goals
48%
Chions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)
46%
Chions (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chions attack 1.10 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Luigi scores more
35%
level
24%
Chions scores more
41%

Chions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Filippini
35'
F. GiovanniniPenalty
44'
F. GiovanniniPenalty
89'
T. Bertoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Luigi vs Chions

San Luigi beat Chions 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 23, 2020.

Goals: A. Filippini (24'), F. Giovannini (35' pen, 44' pen), T. Bertoni (89').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste).