Chions 3–1 San Luigi: Result & Stats

Chions

FT

3 – 1

San Luigi

10/20/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 9Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chions44%

×Draw26%

San Luigi30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChionsExpected goals in this matchSan Luigi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.13

Chions

1.43

San Luigi

1.13

Chions creates 27% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Chions

1.18

San Luigi

1.10

allows per match

Chions

1.16

San Luigi

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chions+0.00on par

San Luigi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

San Luigi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chions or draw

70%

Chions or San Luigi

74%

Draw or San Luigi

56%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+

21%

San Luigi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals

76%

Chions 2+ goals

42%

Chions 3+ goals

17%

San Luigi 1+ goals

68%

San Luigi 2+ goals

31%

San Luigi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)

60%

San Luigi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

San Luigi away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + San Luigi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Luigi attack 1.10 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chions scores more

44%

level

26%

San Luigi scores more

30%

Chions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff