San Luigi 1–3 Belluno: Result & Stats

San Luigi

FT

1 – 3

Belluno

9/29/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 6Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

San Luigi31%

×Draw23%

Belluno46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuigiExpected goals in this matchBelluno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.73

San Luigi

1.38

Belluno

1.73

Belluno creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

2.16

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

San Luigi

1.13

Belluno

1.29

allows per match

San Luigi

2.16

Belluno

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par

Belluno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Belluno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw

54%

San Luigi or Belluno

77%

Draw or Belluno

69%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+

14%

Belluno wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals

75%

San Luigi 2+ goals

40%

San Luigi 3+ goals

16%

Belluno 1+ goals

82%

Belluno 2+ goals

52%

Belluno 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)

40%

Belluno (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Belluno away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Belluno defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Belluno attack 1.29 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Luigi scores more

31%

level

23%

Belluno scores more

46%

Belluno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff