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Belluno vs San Luigi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Belluno
Belluno
FT
2 – 0
San Luigi
San Luigi
2/2/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 25Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belluno44%
×Draw26%
San Luigi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belluno
1.42
San Luigi
1.13

Belluno creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Belluno
1.15
San Luigi
1.10

allows per match

Belluno
1.15
San Luigi
1.68

finishing

Belluno+0.00on par
San Luigi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belluno ↓

San Luigi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Belluno or draw
70%
Belluno or San Luigi
74%
Draw or San Luigi
56%

Winning margin

Belluno wins by 2+
21%
San Luigi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Belluno 1+ goals
76%
Belluno 2+ goals
41%
Belluno 3+ goals
17%
San Luigi 1+ goals
68%
San Luigi 2+ goals
31%
San Luigi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belluno (draw refunded)
59%
San Luigi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belluno at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

San Luigi away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belluno attack 1.15 + San Luigi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

San Luigi attack 1.10 + Belluno defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belluno scores more
44%
level
26%
San Luigi scores more
30%

Belluno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belluno vs San Luigi

Belluno beat San Luigi 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno).