San Lorenzo 2–0 Independiente Medellin

San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

A. Bareiro 80' (pen), 25' (pen)

7/20/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

San Lorenzo44%

×Draw26%

Independiente Medellin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

San Lorenzo

1.44

Independiente Medellin

1.13

San Lorenzo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.09

creates per match

1.44

0.82

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.82

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

70%

San Lorenzo or Independiente Medellin

74%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

56%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

21%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

76%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

42%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

18%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

68%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

31%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.09 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + San Lorenzo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

44%

level

26%

Independiente Medellin scores more

30%

San Lorenzo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Bareiro

San Lorenzo · F

9.2

Match Events

19'

Gonzalo Maroni

20'

Miguel Monsalve

24'

Jhon Palacios

25'

A. BareiroPenalty

33'

Adam Bareiro

45+1'

Leyser Chaverra Renteria

46'

Á. Plata← D. Torres

56'

Jalil Elias

58'

G. Campi← G. Maroni

61'

J. Cuesta← M. Monsalve

61'

Y. Gómez← L. Chaverra

79'

A. Martegani← N. Barrios

80'

A. BareiroPenalty

81'

D. Moreno← J. Alvarado

81'

J. Arizala← D. Quiñónes

83'

David Loaiza

89'

D. Perea← A. Bareiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanIndependiente

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots7

6Corners6

18Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

265Total Passes537

188Accurate Passes456

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: San Lorenzo 2–0 Independiente Medellin

San Lorenzo beat Independiente Medellin 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 20, 2023.

Goals: A. Bareiro (25' pen, 80' pen).

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (66%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: San Lorenzo 2–0 Independiente Medellin