Independiente Medellin 0–1 San Lorenzo

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Lorenzo

A. Bareiro 67'

7/13/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%

×Draw26%

San Lorenzo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.99

Independiente Medellin

1.51

San Lorenzo

0.99

Independiente Medellin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.11

creates per match

1.09

0.89

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

San Lorenzo

1.09

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

San Lorenzo

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

75%

Independiente Medellin or San Lorenzo

74%

Draw or San Lorenzo

51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

78%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

44%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

63%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

26%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.51

San Lorenzo attack 1.09 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

49%

level

26%

San Lorenzo scores more

25%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Bareiro

San Lorenzo · F

7.3

Match Events

25'

Adam Bareiro

30'

Edwuin CetréCard upgrade

31'

Edwuin Cetré

46'

L. Chaverra← B. León

46'

G. Maroni← F. Perruzzi

48'

Gonzalo Luján

53'

Victor Moreno

57'

J. Alvarado← D. Loaiza

57'

J. Cuesta← D. Quiñónes

57'

A. Martegani← N. Barrios

58'

Malcom Braida

67'

A. Bareiro↳ I. Leguizamón

70'

D. Moreno← J. Marulanda

84'

M. Monsalve← D. Torres

85'

Agustín Martegani

86'

N. Blandi← A. Bareiro

89'

Miguel Monsalve

90'

Gastón Campi

90'

D. Calcaterra← I. Leguizamón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteSan

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots9

2Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

0On Target2

5Off Target3

5Blocked4

3Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

496Total Passes303

439Accurate Passes247

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 13, 2023.

Goals: A. Bareiro (67').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs San Lorenzo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs San Lorenzo