San Lorenzo 2–0 Independiente del Valle

San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Independiente del Valle

A. Bareiro 24'

A. Cuello 16'

5/9/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

San Lorenzo56%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

San Lorenzo

1.61

Independiente del Valle

0.81

San Lorenzo creates 99% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

1.40

creates per match

0.92

0.70

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.40

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.70

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

81%

San Lorenzo or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

44%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

30%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

80%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

48%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

22%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

56%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

19%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

75%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.40 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + San Lorenzo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

56%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

19%

San Lorenzo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Cuello

San Lorenzo · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

A. Cuello↳ N. Barrios

18'

Nahuel BarriosGoal confirmed

22'

Adam Bareiro

24'

A. Bareiro↳ A. Cuello

27'

Renato Ibarra

32'

G. Gómez← F. Altamirano

41'

Mateo Carabajal

46'

L. Díaz← Romario Ibarra

46'

P. Mercado← C. Zabala

58'

Agustín Giay

62'

A. Bolaños← Rrenato Ibarra

62'

Y. Medina← B. Caicedo

66'

G. Luján← N. Barrios

73'

Kendry Páez

77'

R. López← K. Páez

82'

E. Cerutti← A. Cuello

82'

D. Herazo← A. Bareiro

87'

Jhohan Romaña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanIndependiente

Overview

35%Possession65%

14Total Shots5

1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.25

5Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots5

4On Target1

8Off Target2

2Blocked2

8Inside Box1

6Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

214Total Passes421

143Accurate Passes348

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Independiente del Valle

San Lorenzo beat Independiente del Valle 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 9, 2024.

Goals: A. Cuello (16'), A. Bareiro (24').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (65%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Independiente del Valle