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Independiente del Valle vs San Lorenzo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
M. Hoyos 45+1'
J. Sornoza 13' (pen)
4/10/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independiente del Valle64%
×Draw23%
San Lorenzo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.69
San Lorenzo
0.60

Independiente del Valle creates 182% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
2.28
San Lorenzo
0.40

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.80
San Lorenzo
1.10

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
87%
Independiente del Valle or San Lorenzo
77%
Draw or San Lorenzo
36%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
36%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
82%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
50%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
24%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
45%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
12%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
83%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + San Lorenzo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

San Lorenzo attack 0.40 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
64%
level
23%
San Lorenzo scores more
13%

Independiente del Valle at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
K. PáezIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · M
8.5

Match Events

13'
J. SornozaPenalty
14'
Beder Caicedo
32'
Kendry Páez
32'
Nahuel Barrios
32'
Francisco Perruzzi
36'
Y. Medina← J. Sornoza
45+3'
Yaimar MedinaGoal confirmed
45+1'
M. Hoyos↳ Y. Medina
46'
C. Sánchez← E. Irala
52'
D. Herazo← N. Barrios
57'
K. Arroyo← Rrenato Ibarra
57'
L. Zárate← B. Caicedo
71'
Adam Bareiro
71'
T. Medina← A. Bareiro
83'
Gastón Campi
89'
P. Mercado← K. Páez
89'
R. López← M. Hoyos

Possession

73%Independiente

Shots

20Independiente

Pass accuracy

55%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteSan
Overview
73%Possession27%
20Total Shots5
2.66Expected Goals (xG)0.22
2Corners4
9Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots5
7On Target0
10Off Target5
3Blocked0
9Inside Box4
11Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
714Total Passes245
652Accurate Passes180
91%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs San Lorenzo

Independiente del Valle beat San Lorenzo 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Sornoza (13' pen), M. Hoyos (45+1').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (73%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.