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San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
3/11/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 7Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

San Lorenzo41%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia L.P.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo
1.17
Gimnasia L.P.
0.93

San Lorenzo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 126 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo
1.13
Gimnasia L.P.
0.87

allows per match

San Lorenzo
0.98
Gimnasia L.P.
1.21

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Gimnasia L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw
71%
San Lorenzo or Gimnasia L.P.
70%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
59%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+
18%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals
69%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
33%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
61%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
24%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
59%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.21 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.13 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.87 + San Lorenzo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Lorenzo scores more
41%
level
30%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
29%

San Lorenzo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 4–0 Gimnasia L.P.

San Lorenzo beat Gimnasia L.P. 4-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.