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Gimnasia L.P. vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
1/29/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.27%
×Draw33%
San Lorenzo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
0.74
San Lorenzo
0.98

San Lorenzo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
0.79
San Lorenzo
0.53

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.43
San Lorenzo
0.69

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.08on par
San Lorenzo+0.27scores more

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
60%
Gimnasia L.P. or San Lorenzo
67%
Draw or San Lorenzo
73%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
52%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
17%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
4%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
62%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
26%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
40%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.79 + San Lorenzo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

San Lorenzo attack 0.53 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
27%
level
33%
San Lorenzo scores more
40%

San Lorenzo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata.