San Lorenzo 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

N. Tripichio 72'

J. Romana 62'

4/17/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

San Lorenzo59%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.53

San Lorenzo

1.42

Deportivo Cuenca

0.53

San Lorenzo creates 168% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.09

creates per match

0.25

0.82

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.09

Deportivo Cuenca

0.25

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.82

Deportivo Cuenca

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

86%

San Lorenzo or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

41%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

30%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

76%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

41%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

41%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

10%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

81%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.09 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.25 + San Lorenzo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

59%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

14%

San Lorenzo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

N. Tripichio

San Lorenzo · M

8.7

Match Events

46'

R. Auzmendi← G. Abrego

46'

F. Gulli← M. Hernandez

53'

Santiago Postel

58'

M. Reali← N. Barrios

58'

A. Ladstatter← M. De Ritis

62'

J. Romana↳ M. Reali

64'

J. Ordonez← N. Leguizamon

64'

G. Rivero← M. Diaz

72'

N. Tripichio↳ M. Reali

74'

M. Klimowicz← E. Vega

74'

B. Garcia← A. Lopez

84'

J. Mejia← D. Gonzalez

86'

G. Corujo← A. Cuello

90'

Orlando Gill

90+1'

Matias Klimowicz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanDeportivo

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots13

2.25Expected Goals (xG)0.47

5Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots13

5On Target1

12Off Target10

2Blocked2

12Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

377Total Passes321

299Accurate Passes241

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.68Goals Prevented-0.68

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: San Lorenzo 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca

San Lorenzo beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 17, 2026.

Goals: J. Romana (62'), N. Tripichio (72').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Cuenca — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: San Lorenzo 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca