Deportivo Cuenca 0–0 San Lorenzo: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Lorenzo

5/6/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca37%

×Draw27%

San Lorenzo36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.25

Deportivo Cuenca

1.26

San Lorenzo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.60

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.60

San Lorenzo

1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.40

San Lorenzo

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

64%

Deportivo Cuenca or San Lorenzo

73%

Draw or San Lorenzo

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

16%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

13%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

71%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

36%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

50%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.60 + San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

San Lorenzo attack 1.09 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

37%

level

27%

San Lorenzo scores more

36%

Deportivo Cuenca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Ferrero

Deportivo Cuenca · G

8.0

Match Events

37'

Patricio Boolsen

40'

Juan Rattalino

46'

M. Reali← N. Barrios

46'

F. Gulli← J. Rattalino

61'

Melvin Diaz

62'

D. Gonzalez← M. Diaz

64'

A. Ladstatter← T. Rodriguez Pagano

65'

Jorge Ordóñez

69'

I. Mosquera← A. Lopez

75'

Germán Rivero

80'

M. Klimowicz← G. Rivero

80'

J. Mejia← B. Garcia

80'

M. De Ritis← A. Cuello

89'

D. Herazo←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoSan

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots15

0.45Expected Goals (xG)0.73

3Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target4

8Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box10

Passing

41%Possession59%

295Total Passes430

222Accurate Passes353

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.39Goals Prevented0.39

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1