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San Lorenzo Res. vs River Plate Res. — Reserve League 2022

San Lorenzo Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
River Plate Res.
River Plate Res.
3/6/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

San Lorenzo Res.36%
×Draw28%
River Plate Res.36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Res.
1.17
River Plate Res.
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.27
River Plate Res.
1.31

allows per match

San Lorenzo Res.
1.02
River Plate Res.
1.06

finishing

San Lorenzo Res.+0.00on par
River Plate Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Res. ↓

River Plate Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Res. or draw
64%
San Lorenzo Res. or River Plate Res.
72%
Draw or River Plate Res.
64%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Res. wins by 2+
15%
River Plate Res. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Res. 1+ goals
69%
San Lorenzo Res. 2+ goals
33%
San Lorenzo Res. 3+ goals
11%
River Plate Res. 1+ goals
69%
River Plate Res. 2+ goals
33%
River Plate Res. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Res. (draw refunded)
50%
River Plate Res. (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Res. at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

River Plate Res. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Res. attack 1.27 + River Plate Res. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

River Plate Res. attack 1.31 + San Lorenzo Res. defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Lorenzo Res. scores more
36%
level
28%
River Plate Res. scores more
36%

San Lorenzo Res. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Lorenzo Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Lorenzo Res. 2 – 0 River Plate Res.

San Lorenzo Res. beat River Plate Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on March 6, 2025.