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River Plate Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. — Reserve League 2022

River Plate Res.
River Plate Res.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
San Lorenzo Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
7/29/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

River Plate Res.48%
×Draw25%
San Lorenzo Res.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate Res.
1.55
San Lorenzo Res.
1.10

River Plate Res. creates 41% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 65 away

creates per match

River Plate Res.
1.88
San Lorenzo Res.
1.31

allows per match

River Plate Res.
0.89
San Lorenzo Res.
1.23

finishing

River Plate Res.+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate Res. ↓

San Lorenzo Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Plate Res. or draw
73%
River Plate Res. or San Lorenzo Res.
75%
Draw or San Lorenzo Res.
52%

Winning margin

River Plate Res. wins by 2+
24%
San Lorenzo Res. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

River Plate Res. 1+ goals
79%
River Plate Res. 2+ goals
46%
River Plate Res. 3+ goals
20%
San Lorenzo Res. 1+ goals
67%
San Lorenzo Res. 2+ goals
30%
San Lorenzo Res. 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

River Plate Res. (draw refunded)
64%
San Lorenzo Res. (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate Res. at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.89 · 75 matches

San Lorenzo Res. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate Res. attack 1.88 + San Lorenzo Res. defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

San Lorenzo Res. attack 1.31 + River Plate Res. defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

River Plate Res. scores more
48%
level
25%
San Lorenzo Res. scores more
27%

River Plate Res. at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River Plate Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: River Plate Res. 2–2 San Lorenzo Res.

River Plate Res. and San Lorenzo Res. drew 2-2 in Reserve League on July 29, 2025.