Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Lorenzo Alem vs Racing Cordoba — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
3/17/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 9Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Lorenzo Alem34%
×Draw29%
Racing Cordoba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Alem
1.07
Racing Cordoba
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 43 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Racing Cordoba
0.93

allows per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Racing Cordoba
0.81

finishing

San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Alem ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Alem or draw
63%
San Lorenzo Alem or Racing Cordoba
71%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
66%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
13%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
66%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
29%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
9%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
68%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
31%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
48%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Alem at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.33 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.07

Racing Cordoba attack 0.93 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Lorenzo Alem scores more
34%
level
29%
Racing Cordoba scores more
37%

Racing Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Lorenzo Alem vs Racing Cordoba

San Lorenzo Alem and Racing Cordoba drew 3-3 in Torneo Federal A on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca).