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Racing Cordoba vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
2/17/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 4Estadio Miguel Sancho (Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing Cordoba60%
×Draw23%
San Lorenzo Alem17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.77
San Lorenzo Alem
0.80

Racing Cordoba creates 121% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.88
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.60
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
83%
Racing Cordoba or San Lorenzo Alem
77%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
40%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
35%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
83%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
53%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
26%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
55%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
19%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
78%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.60 · 48 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.88 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
60%
level
23%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
17%

Racing Cordoba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Cordoba vs San Lorenzo Alem

Racing Cordoba beat San Lorenzo Alem 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho (Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba).