San Lorenzo Alem 1–2 Juventud Unida Univ.

San Lorenzo Alem

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Juventud Unida Univ.

10/14/2018

Torneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 8Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Lorenzo Alem39%

×Draw29%

Juventud Unida Univ.32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Lorenzo AlemExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida Univ.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

San Lorenzo Alem

1.19

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.06

San Lorenzo Alem creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 111 away

1.33

creates per match

0.79

1.33

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

San Lorenzo Alem

1.33

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.79

allows per match

San Lorenzo Alem

1.33

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Alem ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Alem or draw

68%

San Lorenzo Alem or Juventud Unida Univ.

71%

Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.

61%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+

17%

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals

70%

San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals

33%

San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals

12%

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals

65%

Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals

29%

Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)

55%

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Alem at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.33 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Lorenzo Alem scores more

39%

level

29%

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more

32%

San Lorenzo Alem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Lorenzo Alem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff