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Juventud Unida Univ. vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
12/2/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 17Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez (San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Juventud Unida Univ.49%
×Draw28%
San Lorenzo Alem23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.34
San Lorenzo Alem
0.81

Juventud Unida Univ. creates 65% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 12 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.02
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
0.62
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida Univ. ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventud Unida Univ. or draw
77%
Juventud Unida Univ. or San Lorenzo Alem
72%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
51%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
23%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
74%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
39%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
15%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
56%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
19%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
68%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida Univ. at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 1.02 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
49%
level
28%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
23%

Juventud Unida Univ. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventud Unida Univ. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Unida Univ. 2 – 2 San Lorenzo Alem

Juventud Unida Univ. and San Lorenzo Alem drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez (San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).