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San Lorenzo Alem vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
9/30/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 5Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Lorenzo Alem29%
×Draw30%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo Alem
0.94
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.17

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.00

allows per match

San Lorenzo Alem
1.33
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.54

finishing

San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo Alem ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Lorenzo Alem or draw
59%
San Lorenzo Alem or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
70%
Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
71%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
10%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
61%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
24%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
7%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
69%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
33%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
42%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo Alem at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.33 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.94

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.00 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Lorenzo Alem scores more
29%
level
30%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
41%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Lorenzo Alem vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

San Lorenzo Alem beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Liga Catamarqueña (San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca, Catamarca).