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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
11/18/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 14Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto (Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto58%
×Draw22%
San Lorenzo Alem19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.87
San Lorenzo Alem
0.97

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 93% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2.07
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.93
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw
81%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or San Lorenzo Alem
78%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
42%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
34%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
85%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
56%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
29%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
62%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
25%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
75%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 2.07 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
58%
level
22%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
19%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–2 San Lorenzo Alem

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and San Lorenzo Alem drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto (Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba).