San Juan 1–1 Oberena: Result & Stats

San Juan

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oberena

3/28/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

San Juan62%

×Draw22%

Oberena16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San JuanExpected goals in this matchOberena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.80

San Juan

1.86

Oberena

0.80

San Juan creates 133% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

1.64

creates per match

1.08

0.51

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

San Juan

1.64

Oberena

1.08

allows per match

San Juan

0.51

Oberena

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par

Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Oberena →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Juan or draw

84%

San Juan or Oberena

78%

Draw or Oberena

38%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+

37%

Oberena wins by 2+

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals

84%

San Juan 2+ goals

55%

San Juan 3+ goals

28%

Oberena 1+ goals

55%

Oberena 2+ goals

19%

Oberena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)

80%

Oberena (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Oberena attack 1.08 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

San Juan scores more

62%

level

22%

Oberena scores more

16%

San Juan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff