Oberena 2–0 San Juan: Result & Stats

Oberena

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Juan

11/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena34%

×Draw28%

San Juan38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OberenaExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Oberena

1.13

San Juan

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 62 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Oberena

1.31

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Oberena

1.14

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

San Juan →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oberena or draw

62%

Oberena or San Juan

72%

Draw or San Juan

66%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+

14%

San Juan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals

68%

Oberena 2+ goals

31%

Oberena 3+ goals

11%

San Juan 1+ goals

70%

San Juan 2+ goals

34%

San Juan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)

47%

San Juan (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

San Juan attack 1.29 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oberena scores more

34%

level

28%

San Juan scores more

38%

San Juan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff