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San Juan vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

San Juan
San Juan
CANC
00:00
Lourdes
Lourdes
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 31Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan63%
×Draw23%
Lourdes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan
1.78
Lourdes
0.69

San Juan creates 158% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 29 away

creates per match

San Juan
1.64
Lourdes
0.86

allows per match

San Juan
0.51
Lourdes
1.93

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par
Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Lourdes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Juan or draw
86%
San Juan or Lourdes
77%
Draw or Lourdes
37%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+
37%
Lourdes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals
83%
San Juan 2+ goals
53%
San Juan 3+ goals
26%
Lourdes 1+ goals
50%
Lourdes 2+ goals
15%
Lourdes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)
82%
Lourdes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Lourdes attack 0.86 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

San Juan scores more
63%
level
23%
Lourdes scores more
14%

San Juan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Juan vs Lourdes — Match Preview

San Juan face Lourdes on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

San Juan host Lourdes at Estadio San Juan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.