Lourdes 1–1 San Juan: Result & Stats

Lourdes

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Juan

11/9/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes31%

×Draw28%

San Juan41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LourdesExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.29

Lourdes

1.09

San Juan

1.29

San Juan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Lourdes

1.25

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Lourdes

1.29

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

San Juan →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw

59%

Lourdes or San Juan

72%

Draw or San Juan

69%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+

12%

San Juan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals

66%

Lourdes 2+ goals

30%

Lourdes 3+ goals

10%

San Juan 1+ goals

72%

San Juan 2+ goals

37%

San Juan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)

43%

San Juan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

San Juan attack 1.29 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lourdes scores more

31%

level

28%

San Juan scores more

41%

San Juan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff