San Juan 2–2 Beti Onak: Result & Stats

San Juan

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Beti Onak

10/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

San Juan55%

×Draw25%

Beti Onak20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San JuanExpected goals in this matchBeti Onak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.82

San Juan

1.57

Beti Onak

0.82

San Juan creates 91% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 109 away

1.64

creates per match

1.13

0.51

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

San Juan

1.64

Beti Onak

1.13

allows per match

San Juan

0.51

Beti Onak

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par

Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Beti Onak →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Juan or draw

80%

San Juan or Beti Onak

75%

Draw or Beti Onak

45%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+

29%

Beti Onak wins by 2+

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals

79%

San Juan 2+ goals

46%

San Juan 3+ goals

21%

Beti Onak 1+ goals

56%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

20%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)

74%

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

San Juan scores more

55%

level

25%

Beti Onak scores more

20%

San Juan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff