Beti Onak 1–1 San Juan: Result & Stats

Beti Onak

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Juan

9/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Beti Onak36%

×Draw27%

San Juan37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti OnakExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Beti Onak

1.22

San Juan

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.22

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Beti Onak

1.50

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Beti Onak

1.22

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

San Juan →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw

63%

Beti Onak or San Juan

73%

Draw or San Juan

64%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+

15%

San Juan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals

70%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

34%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

12%

San Juan 1+ goals

71%

San Juan 2+ goals

36%

San Juan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

49%

San Juan (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

San Juan attack 1.29 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Beti Onak scores more

36%

level

27%

San Juan scores more

37%

San Juan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Onak vs San Juan

Beti Onak and San Juan drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.

Beti Onak vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Beti Onak vs San Juan