San Juan Mozarrifar 2–1 Robres: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Robres

Álex García 83'

Cano 26'

Alejandro Muñoz 38'

3/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar29%

×Draw25%

Robres46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchRobres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.56

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.17

Robres

1.56

Robres creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

0.93

creates per match

1.23

1.90

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Robres

1.23

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Robres

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Robres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Robres →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

54%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Robres

75%

Draw or Robres

71%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

11%

Robres wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

69%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

33%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

11%

Robres 1+ goals

79%

Robres 2+ goals

46%

Robres 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

38%

Robres (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Robres away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Robres defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Robres attack 1.23 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

29%

level

25%

Robres scores more

46%

Robres at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Robres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Cano

38'

Alejandro Muñoz

46'

Adrián Casas← Javi Pérez

46'

H. Bouayadi← Álex Navarro

54'

Nacho Uche← Francisco Julián

68'

Álex Villalba← Yeray Jaraba

72'

Catalá← Fran Rotellar

83'

Daniel Moreno← Mariano Ayneto

83'

Álex García

San

Robres

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Adrián Casas←▼Javi Pérez

46'▲H. Bouayadi←▼Álex Navarro

72'▲Catalá←▼Fran Rotellar

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

CasasBouayadiCatalá

Manager: Óscar Molinero

54'▲Nacho Uche←▼Francisco Julián

68'▲Álex Villalba←▼Yeray Jaraba

83'▲Daniel Moreno←▼Mariano Ayneto

Robres substitutes

UcheVillalbaMoreno

Match Recap: San Juan Mozarrifar vs Robres

San Juan Mozarrifar beat Robres 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 8, 2020.

Goals: Cano (26'), Alejandro Muñoz (38'), Álex García (83').

The match was played at Campo Municipal el Gállego in Zaragoza.

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Robres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Juan Mozarrifar vs Robres