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Robres vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Robres
Robres
CANC
16:00
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Robres61%
×Draw23%
San Juan Mozarrifar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robres
1.73
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.73

Robres creates 137% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 24 away

creates per match

Robres
1.37
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Robres
1.00
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Robres+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robres ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Robres or draw
85%
Robres or San Juan Mozarrifar
77%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
39%

Winning margin

Robres wins by 2+
35%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Robres 1+ goals
82%
Robres 2+ goals
52%
Robres 3+ goals
25%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
52%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
17%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Robres (draw refunded)
80%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robres at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robres attack 1.37 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Robres defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Robres scores more
61%
level
23%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
15%

Robres at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Robres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Robres vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Match Preview

Robres face San Juan Mozarrifar on April 18, 2021 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.