San Juan Mozarrifar 2–1 Real Zaragoza II

San Juan Mozarrifar

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Zaragoza II

Arnau Gaixas 89' (OG)

Fran Rotellar 72'

Marc Aguado 42'

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar21%

×Draw25%

Real Zaragoza II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchReal Zaragoza II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.60

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.91

Real Zaragoza II

1.60

Real Zaragoza II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

0.93

creates per match

1.30

1.90

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Real Zaragoza II

1.30

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Real Zaragoza II

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Real Zaragoza II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

46%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Real Zaragoza II

75%

Draw or Real Zaragoza II

79%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

60%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

23%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals

80%

Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals

47%

Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

29%

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Real Zaragoza II away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Real Zaragoza II attack 1.30 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

21%

level

25%

Real Zaragoza II scores more

54%

Real Zaragoza II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Marc Aguado

59'

Berdún← Dani Marqués

66'

Carlos Vicente← Luis Forcén

72'

Fran Rotellar

78'

Ángel Acerete← Gotor

78'

Mario Benedet← Jaime Sancho

83'

Falo Burriel← Adrián Casas

88'

Jesús Jiménez← Iván Castillo

89'

Arnau GaixasOwn goal

San

Real

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Nacho Forcén

59'▲Berdún←▼Dani Marqués

78'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Gotor

83'▲Falo Burriel←▼Adrián Casas

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

BerdúnAcereteBurriel

Manager: Javier Garcés

66'▲Carlos Vicente←▼Luis Forcén

78'▲Mario Benedet←▼Jaime Sancho

88'▲Jesús Jiménez←▼Iván Castillo

Real Zaragoza II substitutes

VicenteBenedetJiménez