Real Zaragoza II 1–0 San Juan Mozarrifar

Real Zaragoza II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

Marcos Baselga 56'

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 28Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Real Zaragoza II74%

×Draw18%

San Juan Mozarrifar9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Zaragoza IIExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.56

Real Zaragoza II

2.12

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.56

Real Zaragoza II creates 279% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 24 away

2.16

creates per match

0.46

0.66

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II

2.16

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II

0.66

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw

91%

Real Zaragoza II or San Juan Mozarrifar

82%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

26%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+

48%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals

88%

Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals

62%

Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals

35%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

43%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

11%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)

90%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.12

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more

74%

level

18%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

Real Zaragoza II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Marcos Baselga

65'

Fran Rotellar← H. Bouayadi

73'

Joel Arimany← Luis Forcén

80'

Andreu Torres← Marcos Baselga

80'

Falo Burriel← Rodri Hernando

83'

Álex García← Javi Pérez

87'

Mario Benedet← Ahmed Belhadji

Real

San

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Baselga

Vicente

Manager: Javier Garcés

73'▲Joel Arimany←▼Luis Forcén

80'▲Andreu Torres←▼Marcos Baselga

87'▲Mario Benedet←▼Ahmed Belhadji

Real Zaragoza II substitutes

ArimanyTorresBenedet

Manager: Nacho Forcén

65'▲Fran Rotellar←▼H. Bouayadi

80'▲Falo Burriel←▼Rodri Hernando

83'▲Álex García←▼Javi Pérez

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

RotellarBurrielGarcía