San Juan Mozarrifar 0–2 Cuarte: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cuarte

Antonio Ginoves 59'

Jorge Guillen 51'

9/8/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar24%

×Draw26%

Cuarte50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchCuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.49

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.95

Cuarte

1.49

Cuarte creates 57% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 112 away

0.93

creates per match

1.08

1.90

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Cuarte

1.08

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Cuarte

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Cuarte →

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

50%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Cuarte

74%

Draw or Cuarte

76%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Cuarte wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

61%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

25%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Cuarte 1+ goals

77%

Cuarte 2+ goals

44%

Cuarte 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

33%

Cuarte (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Cuarte attack 1.08 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

24%

level

26%

Cuarte scores more

50%

Cuarte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Jorge Guillen

59'

Antonio Ginoves

60'

Dani Marqués← Álex García

61'

Íñigo Pérez← Francisco Leciñena

69'

Falo Burriel← Ángel Acerete

72'

Juanjo← Miguel Rosell

82'

Israel García← Fran Rotellar

88'

Alberto Esteban← Francisco Valdés

San

Cuarte

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Forcén

60'▲Dani Marqués←▼Álex García

69'▲Falo Burriel←▼Ángel Acerete

82'▲Israel García←▼Fran Rotellar

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

MarquésBurrielGarcía

Manager: Ricardo Gil

61'▲Íñigo Pérez←▼Francisco Leciñena

72'▲Juanjo←▼Miguel Rosell

88'▲Alberto Esteban←▼Francisco Valdés

Cuarte substitutes

PérezJuanjoEsteban

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: San Juan Mozarrifar 0–2 Cuarte

Cuarte beat San Juan Mozarrifar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Jorge Guillen (51'), Antonio Ginoves (59').

The match was played at Campo Municipal el Gállego in Zaragoza.

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: San Juan Mozarrifar 0–2 Cuarte