Cuarte 1–3 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Cuarte

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

San Juan Mozarrifar

Francisco Valdés 78'

Gotor 58', 18'

Berdún 15'

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 24Nuevo Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cuarte66%

×Draw22%

San Juan Mozarrifar11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuarteExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.57

Cuarte

1.76

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.57

Cuarte creates 209% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 24 away

1.44

creates per match

0.46

0.67

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Cuarte

1.44

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Cuarte

0.67

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw

89%

Cuarte or San Juan Mozarrifar

78%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

34%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+

39%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals

83%

Cuarte 2+ goals

52%

Cuarte 3+ goals

26%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

43%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

11%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)

85%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 112 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.44 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.76

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Cuarte defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cuarte scores more

66%

level

22%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

11%

Cuarte at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Berdún

18'

Gotor

41'

Álex Navarro← Adrián Casas

48'

Falo Burriel← Javi Pérez

58'

Francisco Leciñena← Pablo Roldán

58'

Gabriel Merino← Miguel Múzquiz

58'

Gotor

61'

Juanjo← Miguel Rosell

76'

Ángel Acerete← Fran Rotellar

78'

Francisco Valdés

Cuarte

San

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ricardo Gil

58'▲Francisco Leciñena←▼Pablo Roldán

58'▲Gabriel Merino←▼Miguel Múzquiz

61'▲Juanjo←▼Miguel Rosell

Cuarte substitutes

LeciñenaMerinoJuanjo

Manager: Nacho Forcén

41'▲Álex Navarro←▼Adrián Casas

48'▲Falo Burriel←▼Javi Pérez

76'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Fran Rotellar

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

NavarroBurrielAcerete

Match Recap: Cuarte vs San Juan Mozarrifar

San Juan Mozarrifar beat Cuarte 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 19, 2020.

Goals: Berdún (15'), Gotor (18', 58'), Francisco Valdés (78').

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Municipal in Cuarte de Huerva.

Cuarte vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cuarte vs San Juan Mozarrifar