San Juan Mozarrifar 1–0 Almudévar: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Almudévar

Fran Rotellar 36'

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar31%

×Draw27%

Almudévar42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchAlmudévar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.33

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.11

Almudévar

1.33

Almudévar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 96 away

0.93

creates per match

0.77

1.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Almudévar

0.77

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Almudévar

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Almudévar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Almudévar →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

58%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Almudévar

73%

Draw or Almudévar

69%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

12%

Almudévar wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

67%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

30%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

10%

Almudévar 1+ goals

74%

Almudévar 2+ goals

38%

Almudévar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

43%

Almudévar (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Almudévar away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Almudévar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Almudévar attack 0.77 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

31%

level

27%

Almudévar scores more

42%

Almudévar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almudévar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Fran Rotellar

46'

Jorge Clavero← Alejandro Bailo

58'

Fran Lardies← Francis Boadi

65'

Falo Burriel← Álex García

79'

Rodri Hernando← Fran Rotellar

79'

David Paúles← Enzo Sarmiento

88'

Israel García← Dani Marqués

San

Almudévar

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rotellar

▼

Marqués

Manager: Nacho Forcén

65'▲Falo Burriel←▼Álex García

79'▲Rodri Hernando←▼Fran Rotellar

88'▲Israel García←▼Dani Marqués

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

BurrielHernandoGarcía

Manager: Diego Allueva

46'▲Jorge Clavero←▼Alejandro Bailo

58'▲Fran Lardies←▼Francis Boadi

79'▲David Paúles←▼Enzo Sarmiento

Almudévar substitutes

ClaveroLardiesPaúles

Match Recap: San Juan Mozarrifar vs Almudévar

San Juan Mozarrifar beat Almudévar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Fran Rotellar (36').

The match was played at Campo Municipal el Gállego in Zaragoza.

San Juan Mozarrifar vs Almudévar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Juan Mozarrifar vs Almudévar