Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almudévar vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Almudévar
Almudévar
CANC
00:00
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Estadio Virgen de la Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Almudévar58%
×Draw24%
San Juan Mozarrifar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almudévar
1.66
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.79

Almudévar creates 110% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 24 away

creates per match

Almudévar
1.23
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Almudévar
1.11
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Almudévar+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almudévar ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almudévar or draw
82%
Almudévar or San Juan Mozarrifar
76%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
42%

Winning margin

Almudévar wins by 2+
32%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Almudévar 1+ goals
81%
Almudévar 2+ goals
49%
Almudévar 3+ goals
23%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
55%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
19%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almudévar (draw refunded)
77%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almudévar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 96 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almudévar attack 1.23 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Almudévar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Almudévar scores more
58%
level
24%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
18%

Almudévar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Almudévar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almudévar host San Juan Mozarrifar

March 29, 2020: Almudévar take on San Juan Mozarrifar in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almudévar host San Juan Mozarrifar at Estadio Virgen de la Corona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.