San Juan Jabloteh 1–2 Defence Force: Result & Stats

San Juan Jabloteh

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Defence Force

E. Seechan 13'

J. Peters 78'

I. Leacock 1'

12/13/2024

League #591 · Round 2La Horquetta Recreation Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Juan Jabloteh14%

×Draw16%

Defence Force70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan JablotehExpected goals in this matchDefence Force

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.74

San Juan Jabloteh

1.15

Defence Force

2.74

Defence Force creates 138% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

1.33

creates per match

3.31

2.17

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

San Juan Jabloteh

1.33

Defence Force

3.31

allows per match

San Juan Jabloteh

2.17

Defence Force

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Jabloteh+0.00on par

Defence Force+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Jabloteh ↓

Defence Force →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

San Juan Jabloteh or draw

30%

San Juan Jabloteh or Defence Force

84%

Draw or Defence Force

86%

Winning margin

San Juan Jabloteh wins by 2+

5%

Defence Force wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

San Juan Jabloteh 1+ goals

68%

San Juan Jabloteh 2+ goals

32%

San Juan Jabloteh 3+ goals

11%

Defence Force 1+ goals

93%

Defence Force 2+ goals

75%

Defence Force 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

San Juan Jabloteh (draw refunded)

16%

Defence Force (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan Jabloteh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Defence Force away — creates 3.31, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Jabloteh attack 1.33 + Defence Force defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Defence Force attack 3.31 + San Juan Jabloteh defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

San Juan Jabloteh scores more

14%

level

16%

Defence Force scores more

70%

Defence Force at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

I. Leacock

13'

E. Seechan

78'

J. Peters

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff