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Defence Force vs San Juan Jabloteh — League #591 2026

Defence Force
Defence Force
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Juan Jabloteh
San Juan Jabloteh
R. Moore 75'
C. Keller 69'
B. Sam 29'
E. Seechan 36'
3/29/2025League #591League #591 · Round 13La Horquetta Recreation Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Defence Force49%
×Draw22%
San Juan Jabloteh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defence Force
1.98
San Juan Jabloteh
1.50

Defence Force creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

creates per match

Defence Force
2.61
San Juan Jabloteh
2.00

allows per match

Defence Force
1.00
San Juan Jabloteh
1.36

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par
San Juan Jabloteh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

San Juan Jabloteh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw
71%
Defence Force or San Juan Jabloteh
78%
Draw or San Juan Jabloteh
51%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+
28%
San Juan Jabloteh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals
86%
Defence Force 2+ goals
59%
Defence Force 3+ goals
31%
San Juan Jabloteh 1+ goals
78%
San Juan Jabloteh 2+ goals
44%
San Juan Jabloteh 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)
62%
San Juan Jabloteh (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

San Juan Jabloteh away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + San Juan Jabloteh defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

San Juan Jabloteh attack 2.00 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Defence Force scores more
49%
level
22%
San Juan Jabloteh scores more
29%

Defence Force at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. Sam
36'
E. Seechan
69'
C. Keller
75'
R. Moore

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defence Force vs San Juan Jabloteh

Defence Force beat San Juan Jabloteh 3-1 in League #591 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: B. Sam (29'), E. Seechan (36'), C. Keller (69'), R. Moore (75').

The match was played at La Horquetta Recreation Grounds in Arima.